On July 12, 2021, the main rubber contract price continued the shock trend of last week, near 13,300 in the day, and closed at 13,285 yuan/ton in night trading.

Natural rubber currently lacks major support from the fundamentals, and stocks of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are priced at 188,158 yuan/ton, which continues to rise. Warehouse receipts were slightly lowered by 174,550 tons, and downstream car sales were significantly lowered year-on-month. Car sales in May were 2,127,721 units. However, bullish factors have also emerged. Thailand's raw material output may have slowed down due to the epidemic, and the number of confirmed cases in Indonesia is also increasing. But overall, domestic rubber spot consumption is limited, and the continuous shock will continue for a period of time.

On the news, a new round of RRR cuts appeared. The central bank exceeded expectations and cut the RRR by 0.5%, releasing about 1 trillion yuan in long-term funds. Wang Yiming, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China, pointed out that my country's monetary policy has basically returned to the normal state before the epidemic. China's M1 growth rate fell to 5.5% in June, and continued to decline in a single month. On the international front, the U.S. Federal Reserve continued to purchase bonds, and the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury remained sluggish.

Under the coexistence of longs and shorts, combined with the current changeable news, it is expected that the rise and fall of rubber price will increase significantly this week, but the trend of interval fluctuations will continue to be maintained. Beware of price rising and falling.